Preview: Southern California at Arizona State

When: 10:30 PM ET, Saturday, September 26, 2015
Where: Sun Devil Stadium, Tempe, Arizona

USC holds an 18-12 edge in its series with Arizona State (not including Troy’s 2005 road victory later vacated due to NCAA penalty; original record 19-11). However, the Trojans have lost the past 2 meetings and 3 of the last 4 after having won the previous 10 games (not including Troy’s 2005 road victory later vacated due to NCAA penalty; original record 11), the longest win streak in the series. In Tempe games, USC leads the series, 8-7 (not including Troy’s 2005 road victory later vacated due to NCAA penalty; original record 9-7). Seven of USC’s 12 losses in the series have come in Tempe.

USC is scoring quickly in 2015 despite having to travel significant yardage. The average time of the Trojans’ 16 offensive scoring drives this season is 1:50, while the average length of those drives is 66.3 yards. In senior Cody Kessler (70-of-89 passing, 78.7%, 922 yds, 10 TD in 2015/sociology, master’s in communication management ), USC has the nation’s most accomplished returning quarterback of 2015. The 2-year starter enters this year as a leading candidate for the Heisman Trophy and All-American honors. He currently is second nationally in completion percentage (.787, first in Pac-12) and passing TDs (10, first in Pac-12), third in passing efficiency (202.8, first in Pac-12) and 17th in passing yardage (307.3, second in Pac-12). USC’s defense in 2015 is 16th nationally in both turnover margin (1.3, first in Pac-12) and fourth
down conversion defense (.167, first in Pac-12). USC has allowed just 7 points in the first quarter
in 2015.

ASU ranks second in the Pac-12 and eighth in the nation at 38.38 points per game (Baylor, Oregon, Marshall, Ohio State, Florida State, Texas A&M, tied with Georgia) in the Graham era. ASU ranks second in the Pac-12 and 10th in the nation with 1,535 total points (Oregon, Baylor, Ohio State, Florida State, Marshall, Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia, Northern Illinois) in that time.

The Sun Devils have scored on eight of its 10 trips to the red zone this season (80.0 percent) and have scored touchdowns on seven of those. In 2014, ASU scored on 58 of its 64 trips inside the red zone (90.6 percent), ranked 12th in the nation in conversion percentage. In 2013, ASU points on the board 91.3 percent of the time in the red one against FBS opponents in 2013, finishing sixth nationally in the category.

The Sun Devils averaged just 4.5 penalities for 32.4 yards per game, ranked 16th in fewest penalties per game and fourth in fewest penalty yards per game in D-I in 2014.

• Over is 6-2 in Sun Devils last 8 games following a ATS loss.
• Over is 17-6 in Sun Devils last 23 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
• Over is 8-3 in Sun Devils last 11 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.

Selection: Over 64

The Bottom Line: Both teams scores quick which favors the over.

Sunday

4:25 Chicago Bears at Seattle Seahawks

After getting off to a sluggish start against the Green Bay Packers last Sunday night, Russell Wilson commenced using the read-option to spread the offense. The result was that he was able to find Doug Baldwin multiple times down the field, including a 32-yard strike and a 13-yard TD. He was facing a Green Bay defense that traditionally has struggled with running passers, and Wilson ran for 78 yards and was able to extend multiple drives. Shockingly, Russell Wilson only targeted Jimmy Graham twice in a game he threw 30 passes. Moving forward, it appears that Wilson’s Offensive Line is going to give him problems, as he’s been getting sacked at an alarming rate. However, Wilson will go against a pathetic Chicago Bear defense that allows opposing helmsmen to complete 74.5 percent of their passes.

Get these splits from last season, splits for Lynch: 1. He scored 12 of his 17 total TDs at home; and 2. 16 of his 17 TDs came in Seattle’s 12 wins. The Seahawks are 14-point favorites at home against the Bears which maybe a underlay. Anyway, Lynch should rumble for 150+ yards.
With Cutler injured, the Seahawks will hammer backup passer Jimmy Clausen. In his career he has passed for 5 touchdowns and 10 picks!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

AS A FAVORITE OF 10 OR MORE PTS

This season

SU: 0-0 | ATS: 0-0 Last 3 seasons
SU: 9-0 | ATS: 5-4 Since 1993
SU: 19-0 | ATS: 11-8
IN ALL GAMES
This season
SU: 0-2 | ATS: 0-2 Last 3 seasons
SU: 30-10 | ATS: 24-16 Since 1993
SU: 197-193 | ATS: 192-187
IN ALL LINED GAMES
This season
SU: 0-2 | ATS: 0-2 Last 3 seasons
SU: 197-193 | ATS: 192-187
AS A FAVORITE
This season
SU: 0-1 | ATS: 0-1 Last 3 seasons
SU: 28-8 | ATS: 21-15 Since 1993
SU: 134-58 | ATS: 94-94
AS A HOME FAVORITE OF 10.5 TO 14 PTS
This season
SU: 0-0 | ATS: 0-0 Last 3 seasons
SU: 6-0 | ATS: 4-2 Since 1993
SU: 13-0 | ATS: 8-5
IN HOME GAMES
This season
SU: 0-0 | ATS: 0-0 Last 3 seasons
SU: 18-2 | ATS: 13-7 Since 1993
SU: 123-72 | ATS: 103-88
IN HOME LINED GAMES
This season
SU: 0-0 | ATS: 0-0 Last 3 seasons
SU: 18-2 | ATS: 13-7 Since 1993
SU: 123-72 | ATS: 103-88

The Bottom Line: Chicago’s only weapon is Matt Forte.
Selection: Seattle -14

8:30 Denver Broncos at Detroit Lions

Denver has been trying to switch gears to more of a run oriented offense, but last Thursday night Peyton Manning changed to his passing attack and it worked versus Kansas City. Manning finished with a strong game line (256 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT). He gets a better matchup this time around – in a dome – while he also has extra time to prepare as Detroit’s secondary is weak.
Denver’s rushing game is not clicking at all. Their wide outs must carry the load. Demayius Thomas hasn’t drawn a single red zone target through 2 games. And Thomas hasn’t found the end zone through his first 15 catches. Look for that to change soon, perhaps tonight against Detroit’s questionable corners. Emmanuel Sanders is the most consistent wide outs for Manning. Through 2 games, he’s racked up 16 grabs, 152 yards and 2 scores.
Detroit’s helmsman Matthew Stafford enters this matchup banged up. His shaky Offensive Line will really need to step up against the NFL’s top pass-rushing duo of Von Miller and DeMarcus Ware. Stafford should see plenty of volume here, but he also carries clear downside against 1 of the league’s top overall defenses. Screens should be the antidote here. Ameer Abdullah has the athletic ability to use screens to keep the Lions close.

IN GAMES WHERE THE LINE IS +3 TO -3

This season

SU: 1-0 | ATS: 1-0 Last 3 seasons
SU: 2-3 | ATS: 2-3 Since 1993
SU: 68-59 | ATS: 61-56
IN ALL GAMES
This season
SU: 2-0 | ATS: 2-0 Last 3 seasons
SU: 29-9 | ATS: 21-16 Since 1993
SU: 233-158 | ATS: 189-187
IN ALL LINED GAMES
This season
SU: 2-0 | ATS: 2-0 Last 3 seasons
SU: 29-9 | ATS: 21-16 Since 1993
SU: 233-158 | ATS: 189-187
AS A FAVORITE
This season
SU: 1-0 | ATS: 1-0 Last 3 seasons
SU: 28-8 | ATS: 20-15 Since 1993
SU: 184-80 | ATS: 125-129
AS A ROAD FAVORITE OF 3 PTS OR LESS
This season
SU: 0-0 | ATS: 0-0 Last 3 seasons
SU: 1-2 | ATS: 1-2 Since 1993
SU: 22-16 | ATS: 18-17
IN ROAD GAMES
This season
SU: 1-0 | ATS: 1-0 Last 3 seasons
SU: 11-6 | ATS: 10-7 Since 1993
SU: 92-99 | ATS: 91-91
IN ROAD LINED GAMES
This season
SU: 1-0 | ATS: 1-0 Last 3 seasons
SU: 11-6 | ATS: 10-7 Since 1993
SU: 92-99 | ATS: 91-91
IN A ROAD GAME WHERE THE TOTAL IS BETWEEN 42.5 AND 45 PTS
This season
SU: 0-0 | ATS: 0-0 Last 3 seasons
SU: 0-0 | ATS: 0-0 Since 1993
SU: 22-17 | ATS: 22-16
IN ALL GAMES WHERE THE TOTAL IS BETWEEN 42.5 AND 49 PTS
This season
SU: 1-0 | ATS: 1-0 Last 3 seasons
SU: 13-3 | ATS: 9-6 Since 1993
SU: 113-67 | ATS: 93-80

The Bottom Line: Stafford has a habit of throwing picks in crucial situations!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Selection: Denver -3.5

See more lines for this weekend’s games.

Related posts: